The precision of bookmakers’ football predictions differs between secondary and top European leagues. Assuming that bookmakers attempt to minimize payoffs for the winners, their predictions’ precision can be approximated by assessing gambling odds and actual game results. Bettors can make gains by assessing the truth of the bookmakers’ forecasts for every league and focusing on leagues in which their performance is inferior. This report contrasts involving the validity of football predictions created by bookmakers for high vs. secondary European leagues throughout 2008/09 along with the first half 2009/10 seasons.)
DATA AND METHODS
To compare the validity of the bookmakers’ predictions for high vs. leading European leagues, the writers of the article examined the game results and typical gambling odds of 10 shirt and 10 leading European football leagues in these states: Austria, Britain, Holland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Spain and Turkey.
The predictions’ precision has been analyzed by comparing involving the bookies’ smallest gambling odds and the true match results. Additionally, the potential benefit of a bettor who puts his bet on the bookies’ favorites has been calculated in line with the typical betting odds of greater than 20 bookmakers cricket match prediction 100 sure.
After assessing the numbers of bookmakers’ football predictions, the judgment was that their precision is best for the best leagues compared to the ones that are secondary. The percentage of games successfully called by bookmakers fluctuates between 54 percent to the top leagues . 44 percent to the leagues that are secondary. The typical potential 1×2 gain of this bettor represents -3% vs. -13%.) The typical estimated gain of a wager on overall under/over 2.5 equals to -10% vs. -25%.)
Therefore, it’s safe to conclude that the bookmakers’ predictions shouldn’t be utilized as betting hints neither in gambling for the best leagues to its secondary ones, on account of this negative expected profit for bettors.
— The sole profitable league one of the European leagues in the states listed above was that the Austrian Bundesliga (+10 percent 1×2 gain) with greater than 60 percent of proper match forecasts. The chief explanation is that this league is distinguished by large home win figures.
— The unprofitable one of the very best leagues would be the Scottish Premier (-15 percent 1×2 gain) and the German Bundesliga (-8 percent).
— The unprofitable one of the championships would be the Belgium 2e klasse (-25 percent), the French Liga two(-18 percent) along with also the Scottish Section 1 (-15 percent).
— There weren’t any lucrative leagues one of the European leagues.
— The most critical gap between the shirt and the championships was observed for its Spanish Primera (+4 percent) and also Segunda (-20 percent) Divisions.
So, secondary European leagues, notably Belgium 2e klasse, French Liga two and Scottish Division 1 would be the most appealing for bettors, because the precision of the bookmakers’ forecast for all these leagues is poor, leading to high potential payoffs.